ELECTION HORSE-RACE: Warren Tops Biden in Iowa Poll

Senator Elizabeth Warren just got one step closer to the Democratic Presidential nomination.

For the first time Warren has overtaken former Vice President Joe Biden in the latest Des Moines Register poll. It’s considered the most accurate barometer of Iowa’s first-in-the-nation caucus. She’s favored by 22 percent of likely caucusgoers, compared with 20 percent for Biden.

Bernie Sanders in third place with 11 percent. Pete Buttigieg is in fourth with nine percent, and Kamala Harris is in fifth with six percent.

Hot Takes:

  • Iowa is not always a good barometer of who will get the nomination. In 2016, Hillary Clinton and Ted Cruz won Iowa.
  • Warren is looking more and more “electable.” If Biden loses his edge there, he will have a hard time beating her.
  • This stuff is still way too soon. We’ve been talking about 2020 for more than half of Trump‘s term.